Analysts Explain Mystery of TWAMissile Sightings'
DI/OT1 Work Instrumental in Helping FBI Close Most Extensive "Criminal Investigation" in US History
the request of theeam of DI Office of Transnational Issues (OTI) analysts has solved the mystery of the "streaks of light in the sky" many people saw just before TWArashed into the Atlantic Ocean off tht coast of Long Island on ihe evening of. These observations had led to concernsissile may have been used lo shoot down the aircraft, killingeople aboard Just what these eyewitnesses saw has been the subject of pro-tracted speculation by investigators, in the print media, and on such shows as Dateline NBC and Unsolved MysfenVs.
yewitness reports and some radar data provided by the FBI, along with limited information from the aircraft's cockpit voice
recorder and infrared data detectedS satellite, OTI analysts were able to conclude that the so-called "missile sightings" took place after the aircraft exploded. What eyewitnesses saw was in lact ihe burningn various stages of crippled flight
The key to deciphering what the eyewitnesses saw was to associate their visual observations with what they heard. This was possibleery loud sound, recorded by the aircraft's cockpit voice recorder when the aircraftoist before all onboard recordingsheard by many eyewitnessesakwg the coast of Long Island This concussive sound was so loud that itton am.Teloiles away. lamtsmicJ im.'/
APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE: 6
Analysts Explainow p. 1)
Knowing that sound travelsevt per second, it was possible to determine approximately what portion ofsecond crash sequence each eyewitness observed (see story Mow and sequence of pictures on pageto conclude that theobservations occurred too late for them to haveissile attack the aircraft But it was also clear that some eyewitnesses' observations could have created the illusionissileIhe aircraft, because most eyewitnesses were more than nine miles away horn Ihe sequence of events unfolding before them.
the senior analyst involved in Twf's News. "The eyewitness accounts were the original cause for speculationissile may have beenthat, in the final analysis, provedBut those same eyewitness accounts permitted OTI analysts to reconstruct the path offter itfter all onboard recorders ceased operating. Without eyewitness assistance, this would not have been possible."*
What Happened tofter it Exploded?
xploded, all onboard data recording ceased.esult, the subsequent path of the aircraft was at firstBut. using eyewitness reports, radar tracking data, and aerodynamic modeling, OTI analysts were able to reconstruct the approximate path ofrom the instant itsended until it struck the water. This flight pathin turn, provided the basis for understanding what so many people saw on the evening of Julywhat some people misinterpreted toissile attack.
The following sequence of events, based on OTI's analysis, depicts the current best estimate ot what happened to Flight flOO after it exploded. The sequence is depicted in anmtnute video created jointly by OTI and the DI Television-Multimedia Center. (This vuiev can be seen on CIA's television grid on Tuesday,n Unclassifiednd.
Just after the aircraft expkxled, it pitched up abruptly and climbed several thousand feet, from its last recorded altitude of0 feetaximum altitude of0 feet. This is consistent withprovided by National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigators and Boeing engineers, who determined that the front third of the aircraft, including the cockpit, separated from the fuselage within four seconds after the aircraftThis significant, sudden loss of mass from the front ol the aircraft created an imbalance which caused the rapid pitch up and climb.
The explosion, although very loud, was not wen by any known eyewitness. However, the subsequent small fire, trailing from the aircraft, was visibleew of the closest eyewitnesses on land, sea, and in other aircraft. It wasdescribed as "an ascending white lightlare or
ut it was difficult to see against the relatively light
sky.
Shortly aftereached the peak of its ascent, abouteconds after ita fireball erupted from the aircraft. This was clearly visible to many eyewitnesses. The aircraft then wentery steep and rapid descent. As the aircraft descended. It produced an increasingly visible fire trail. When the jet reached an altitude of roughly one mile, abouteconds after itits left wing separated from the fuselage, releasing unbumcd fuel.
The fuel's subsequentand blazeramatic cascade of flames, visible to eyewitnesses more thaniles away, andby an infrared sensorS satellite.
About seven seconds after the left wing detached, andeconds after the initialthe burning debris hit lhe water, v
Questions and Answers Concerning CIA's Involvement in the TWACriminal Investigation"
Why did the FBI request CIA'* technical and analytical assistance in this 'criminaland under what authority did the CIA
A The possibility existed that the crash of TWAas caused by foreign terrorism,one of the most lethal such acts everagainst the US. In full accordance with its charter, the OA responded to the FBI's request for assistance by applying the technical and analytical expertise it normally uses to monitor and assess, foreign weapons threats to US national security.
Q When did this joint relationship begin?
A Wnhinours of the catastrophe.
Q Why did CIA analysts focus their efforts on the eyewitness accounts?
A kye witness accounts of something ascending and culminating in an explosion on the evening of, were the initial (and only) reason for suspectingissile may have been used to shoot down. So OTI analysts focused early attention on these reports, methodically dissecting and analyzing each one. This led to the realization that many eyewitnesses reportedoud sound as part of their observations. The subsequent use of "sound propagation analysis" provided the basis for determining what thesaw, and for concluding that all eyewitness observations took place after the aircraft had already exploded.
VIinf sources of information were madeto CIA analysts?
A Ihe FBI ultimately provided reportsyewitnesses to the catastrophe. The NTSB, via the FBI. provided the aircraft's location, altitude, speed, and heading at the moment it exploded, some air traffic control radar data, and the times at which the airrralt's cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder ceased operating. They also notedoud sound was recorded just before the recorders ceased operating, and that the front third of the aircraft was believed to have separated soon alter the initial explosion.
Q When did CIA analysts first realize thatprobably had observed only the burning aircraft in various stages of crippled flight, ratherissile attacking the aircraft?
A Monday,. But it tookonth for OTI analysts toase solid enough to be formally presented to the FBI and *JTSB.
Q When did CIA analysts decide to document their ivork in an animated video?
A About two weeks later. It was agreed by OTI analysts and line managers thatroduction was needed toonvincing case toaudiences that eyewitnesses had seen only the burning aircraft, ratherissile attack. OTI Front Office managers gave finaland allocated the
Q When were the results ofClA's analysis provided to the FBI?
A Preliminary results were provided via telephone withinours of the time the initial conclusion was made. Detailed results were provided on Marchemorandum from tlie DDI to FBI Assistant Director James Kallstrom. OnIA analysts briefed their results to Kallstrom and aboutthers from the FBI and theissile and Space Intelligence Center (MS1CX They also showed an early version of their video (TWA: What Did the Eyewitnesseshis tin*-OnIA analystsecond briefing, and edited video, to Kallstrom,information from more thanBI rcintervtews oft the conclusion of this session, Kallstrom expressed his appreciation lor CIA's assistance, and his desire to use the CIA video at his news conference announcing the suspension of the criminal investigation, scheduled for the following month. CIA concurred, and undertook final changes to Ihe video to prepare it lor public release.
Q Why weren't the results of CIA's analysisto the public earlier?
A Accordingutual agreement between the FBI ami the CIA at the beginning of their joint efforts, the OA's role would be ancillary to Ihe FBI's overall "criminalhis successful relationship permitted the FBI to proceed with their investigationethodical manner, drawing upon whalevei resourced the> deemed necessarytheir investigation moved forward.
Q How much of the analysis portrayed in the CIA video was performed by CIA weapons analysts?
A AUofil
Q How many analysts were involved?
A Five, all infull-time, two almost full-time, and two for protracted periods. But dozens of staffers and contractors throughout the DI helped make thisuccess.
Q Will the CIA continue to support US airline safety issues?
A OTI will provide support to the NTSB during theirubliccheduled to begin on December S. In addition. OTI analysts are working with the Federal Aviation Administration to assess the man-portable surface-to-air missile threat to commercial aviation
FBI News Conference on TWA: The Aftermath
he FBIajor news conference to release its findings, and toits worldwide criminalmost extensive in FBI history. After discussing the exhaustive forensic work done by the FBI and other agencies, FBI Assistant Director James Kallstromminutc unclassified CIA video which
documented the CIA's conclusion thai eyewitnesses to the disaster
did notissile destroy the
aircraft.
Within minutes, excerpts from the video were picked up by broadcast and print mediaJudging from the initial reactions by the media and public, theits clear explanation of CIA's technical analysis, and its graphicof the aircraft in various stages of crippledsuccessful. In particular, several family members of victims of the crash expressed their strong appreciation for CIA's meticulous analysis, lhe reaction by Robert
Hager, on NBCs Today Show the following morning, was typical' The work wi* riveting. CIA analysts prepared it aftereyewitness accounts with precise data from radar, from the plane's recorders, and from [inlrared dataS satellite) Theascinating, highly informed CIA videool the plane's lasteconds
nalysis: One OTI Manappr'c iWp^tive
speaking, the work done by OTI's technical weapons analysts on TWAstandard, multi-source Dl analysis. Technical analysts have considerable expertise using radar tracking data and satellite infrared data as critical inputs to weapon* performance assessments. The timing data obtained from's cockpit voice recorder is similar to data that might be obtained from SIC1NT or COM1NT. The eyewitness reporting is similar to HUMTNT data. For example, while the analysts were not concerned about eyewitness descriptions being "deceptionshey did have to evaluate each report and description in light of what other eyewitnesses described, and what the technical data showed
The sound propagation analysisuch simplified form ol the complex technical analytical tools used by weapons analysts to assess foreign systems. Right reconstructions of missiles and aircraft are done rcKitinely. Furthermore, using video as the medium foromplex technical assessment, or for graphicallyeapons test, is not unusual for analysts in Oil (Andheideo script went through iteration after iteration of review and wordsmithing by peers andutshell, the Flight BOO work is just another example of what Dl analysts do every day, although usuallyuch more highly classified domain, (continued on p. 61
Oneom p. 5)
With more than three decades in Ihe technical analysisnow that weapons analystsreat deal of inner satisfaction from the knowledge that their work supports and impacts US defense policy and the DoD's weapons acquisitions process. For all those involved in thenalysis, the inner satisfaction came from different, though more emotionally powerful, directions.
First, during the initial phases of theiranalysts believed there was the very strong possibility thai the aircraft was downederrorist act The opportunity to beio apply one's professional expertise-in analyzing what amid have been the most horrific terrorist act ever perpetrated againsl the US provided strong motivation.
Second, and in the end most important, was the fact that above all else, the crash ofuman tragedy. As the analysisthose involved were strongly motivated by the knowledge that their work and expertise
might help in some small way to bring closure for many of ihc families of ihe crash victims. The statements to this effect by several family members after they saw Ihe video were just as satisfying,so, than the kudos analysts receive after publishing an assessment for DoD or State.
If you look at the total effort expended by the FBI and all other agencies worldwide on theover the pastonths, the CIA's level of effort was relatively small. Without an explanation ol what the eyewitnesses saw, however, the FBI would have been hard pressed to end its criminal investigation. The public, having been treated toonths of unchallenged theories, would never have been convinced that the eyewitnesses had notissile destroy the aircraft
CIA's work was inslrument.il in helping the FBI close the most extensive "criminal investigation" in US history. Everyone at OA involved with thisthe early hours after the crash to the press conference on Novemberbe justly proud of their part. Those of us who were on the periphery, and those who just recently learned that CIA was involved at all, slum? in that pride.v
TWAork: The Bottom Line
The following note was posted to the Dl Discussion Database after the FBI's Novemberews conference.
Although it is indeed tragic that our world requires such work onould like toIhose CIA employees whose efforts helped greatly in solving the mystery surrounding theelieve you have done an outstanding service to your country, your government,of grieving loved ones searching forirmly believe you have helped those lei! behind to now live in peace
Response
Your kind words are most appreciated. Many people at the CIA, FBI, and elsewhereuccess. And anyone who has stood in the TWAeconstruction hangarNew York, knows what motivated us. Afteronths of work, our hope now is thatand friends of the crash victims derive at least some small measure of solace knowing weour absolute best effort trying to give them some answers to this almost unimaginablefeedback suggests they
Original document.
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